Mike Smith
- May 1, 2010
- #31
There is a debris ball in the hook between Stinking Bay and Horton's Landing, Arkansas.
Skip Talbot
EF5
- Joined
- May 1, 2004
- Messages
- 3,417
- Location
- Springfield, IL
- May 1, 2010
- #32
A couple of problems I'm noticing with this setup (although quite late in the game now). The storms are moving with the mean flow with very little deviant motion. Without any right turning supercells the storm relative shear is not being enhanced. Also the surface winds are rather light and mediocre. With storms moving away from the these lights winds, the relative inflow is probably very weak. Also, low level lapse rates are terrible. Sure Cape is up to 3000 but without those lapse rates and weak inflow we're not seeing that explosive updraft development and low level structure with fast rising motion. Yes, the low level jet is ramping up tonight but these storms have been down trending for the past hour. This looks like the biggest bust of '10 so far.
Justin Avery
EF0
- Joined
- Dec 30, 2008
- Messages
- 19
- Location
- Joplin, MO
- May 1, 2010
- #33
The cell moving into Philipps County, AR is still staying together pretty well. It has good dynamics in front of it and Memphis in the bullseye.
Jonathan Whitehead
EF5
- Joined
- Apr 25, 2004
- Messages
- 504
- Location
- DFW
- May 1, 2010
- #34
Spotters reporting tornado on ground west of Cherry Valley --KARK
Jonathan Whitehead
EF5
- Joined
- Apr 25, 2004
- Messages
- 504
- Location
- DFW
- May 1, 2010
- #35
storm SW of LIT near Bryan has really ramped up its rotation in last 15 min
Drew.Gardonia
- May 1, 2010
- #36
http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/md/md0454.html
The NWS has issued a Mesoscale Discussion for ECNTRL MS, NWRN AL, and Mid TN. I anticipate a new tornado watch being issued for Mid-TN in the next few hours as convection forms along the retreating outflow boundary.
Jonathan Whitehead
EF5
- Joined
- Apr 25, 2004
- Messages
- 504
- Location
- DFW
- May 1, 2010
- #37
Tornado Warning for Downtown Memphis. Beale Street Music Festival concert goers (est 50,000) NEED TO TAKE COVER NOW!!! NQA continues to detect tornadic rotation SW of Hughes.
Kevin Bowman
EF4
- Joined
- Apr 21, 2005
- Messages
- 429
- Location
- Chicago, IL
- May 1, 2010
- #38
live feed from memphis, the 2nd sounds like there are sirens in background
Charles Kuster
EF4
- Joined
- Jun 30, 2004
- Messages
- 330
- Location
- Leadville, CO/ Norman, OK
- May 1, 2010
- #39
There are two tornado warned storms in eastern Arkansas that bear watching. One probable tornado (public reported a tornado at 9:45pm CDT) was located about 4 miles southwest of Caraway, AR as of 9:58pm CDT and was moving northeast at 45mph. It should be near Manila, AR by about 10:19pm CDT.
Another possible tornado was located about 4 miles south-southeast of Hughes, AR or about 27 miles southwest of Memphis, TN as of 9:58pm CDT. This tornado could be near West Memphis by 10:27pm CDT and Memphis by 10:35pm CDT.
jshields
- May 1, 2010
- #40
storm now moving into west memphis. no tornado reported on the ground, but looks pretty good on radar. grlevel 3 is also showing 3.75" hail
Matthew E. Engelbrecht
EF0
- Joined
- Jan 2, 2006
- Messages
- 46
- Location
- Mountain House, CA
- May 1, 2010
- #41
Looks like the most dangerous portion of that storm is going to pass right over the KQNA RDA.
Matthew E. Engelbrecht
EF0
- Joined
- Jan 2, 2006
- Messages
- 46
- Location
- Mountain House, CA
- May 1, 2010
- #42
Skip Talbot said:
A couple of problems I'm noticing with this setup (although quite late in the game now). The storms are moving with the mean flow with very little deviant motion. Without any right turning supercells the storm relative shear is not being enhanced.
I agree - early on in the afternoon when the first storms were going up in southern Arkansas, I saw the storm motions and wondered how they were going to get any low-level helicity moving so fast and on tracks with such a large northerly component. Looking at evening soundings, it also looks like winds are more SW than W from 500mb-200mb. There's not a lot of turning/curve in the LZK and BNA 00z hodographs, and I think the storm modes are generally reflecting this. The JAN hodograph looks favorable for supercells, but there's not much going on down there.
Kevin Polston
EF0
- Joined
- Mar 9, 2005
- Messages
- 41
- May 2, 2010
- #43
impressive hook has developed now in southwest KY at 0615Z. Would have to think with there is a tornado on the ground now with that kind of signature.
Billy Griffin
- May 2, 2010
- #44
5/02/2010 NOW: KY, TN, MS
Surprised how quiet it is on here, but I'm assuming everyone is just exhausted from tracking these things over the past few days.
Long-track tornadoes continue with cells in KY, TN and MS. Looks like these things will just continue right up 'til dawn! An amazing night/morning of seeing these cells spawn over eastern AR/MO and ride boundaries eastward.
Looks like the timing was a little late, and cells didn't go until the nocturnal jet kicked in enough upper level energy to get the cells to jump off of the cold front and into better feeds of moisture. Nevertheless, I sure have the feeling that we'll be waking up in the AM with widespread reports of damage... even moreso than what was reported. One can only hope there are no more casualties with these storms.
Everyone be safe!
beaudodson
EF5
- Joined
- Feb 8, 2005
- Messages
- 789
- Location
- Metropolis, Illinois
- May 2, 2010
- #45
We did have damage in west KY this morning - NWS will be out doing surveys. Will see what they come up with. Thunderstorms continue to fire along the front. Dew points in southeast MO, southern IL, and west KY are still well into the 60s. Quite amazing.
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